Video - the birth of modern forecasting These guides and activities will help you understand the structure of a weather forecast and help you to write a great forecast. It is essential the information provided is timely, accurate and useful to as many people as possible.
During the past several summers there have been major wildfires in Washington State producing a lot of smoke. And many people have been asking an important question: To what degree is anthropogenic global warming contributing to Washington State wildfires?
And yes, the percentages could be somewhere in between. Supporters of the carbon fee initiative are suggesting that the recent wildfires are mainly the result of anthropogenic climate change and using the fires to push their carbon fee plan.
And Governor Inslee has stated explicitly that the fires have been made much worse by climate change. In contrast, others, including a number of folks in the forestry community, have suggested that poor forest practices are the main cause of most of the wildfires over the eastern side of the state.
It is important to note that relative role of global warming in influencing the threat of wildfires may change in time. For example, global warming could be relatively unimportant today for wildfires, but of great importance later in the century when temperatures will be much warmer.
The Need for Better Information There is actually very little limited quantitative information on the role of global warming on Washington State wildfires. Which is kind of strange considering the importance of the issue and the authoritative statements being made by some.
A lot of hand waving, but not much data. But before I do so, let me give you the bottom line. Now let me provide some evidence for this conclusion. First, consider daily mean temperatures from to today.
There is a substantial research that suggested that the radiative effects of increasing CO2 in the atmosphere became significant for climate forcing something around the s.
And there was an important shift in a mode of natural variability, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation PD0 during the mids: Now the question is how much of the recent warming shown above is due to anthropogenic global warming and how much is due to natural variability.
A group of researchers at the UW including myself are working on this question, using the most sophisticated approach applied to date: This is the gold standard for such work.
We started with global climate models driven by the most aggressive increase of greenhouse gases RCP 8. I also show the observed temperatures during the contemporary period at these location. Virtually all of our simulation show greater warming at Spokane then along the coast, so let me show you that first.Real news, curated by real humans.
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Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics.
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